Baseball Station

The AL Central has proved itself to be among baseball’s best divisions, and it might be the best in the entire game. The Cleveland Indians may be the most underrated 96-win team of all time, while the Detroit Tigers swung a super-steal, er, deal, and became an offensive powerhouse. The Chicago White Sox, instead of trying to rebuild, decided to take a gamble and build up their lineup. The Kansas City Royals continue to be the Kansas City Royals, and the Minnesota Twins entered a full-scale rebuilding mode by dealing their best player. Here’s how they’ll finish (with their projected 2008 records in parentheses):

1. Cleveland Indians (94-6 - The Indians had a tremendous 2007 after a tremendous disappointment in 2006, but they still had a 3-1 lead in the ALCS and couldn’t get it done. The 2008 Cleveland Indians will look to take the next step. They didn’t do anything besides change the name of their stadium over the offseason, acquiring a Japanese reliever as their “big” move. This was because their roster is already stacked. C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are Cleveland’s pocket aces, and Jake Westbrook isn’t bad either. Travis Hafner is set to bounce back, Grady Sizemore is a stud, and catcher Victor Martinez is the most underrated position player in baseball. Ryan Garko and Franklin Gutierrez will continue their development. Look for the Indians to cruise into the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

2. Detroit Tigers (90-72) - The Tigers made a huge improvement to their lineup and a smaller yet still significant improvement to their rotation by acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Florida Marlins for six prospects, including projected stars Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. Now Detroit’s lineup looks scary good. After subsequent acquisitions of Edgar Renteria and Jacque Jones, the Tigers now sport the MLB’s best starting nine. It’s the pitching that must be questioned. Besides Justin Verlander, everyone is a question mark. D-Train and Jeremy Bonderman both had ERAs over five in 2007, and Nate Robertson is adequate. No one knows what Kenny Rogers will do. I think this team will struggle early, and then pick it up late, but it won’t be enough to make the playoffs. At least, not this year.

3. Chicago White Sox (82-80) - Ultra-agressive GM Kenny Williams truly believes that last year’s last place finish was a fluke, and he went out and proved it by significantly improving his team this winter. Nick Swisher joins mashers Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye in a very solid and underrated lineup. New young outfielder Carlos Quentin could still become a star. Orlando Cabrera and A.J. Piersynski can still hit. Youngster Josh Fields could make dramatic improvements, if he gets a starting job. However, the problem with the Pale Hose is that their pitching is still suspect. Jose Contreras is not the same as he was in 2005. Neither are Mark Beuhrle or Javier Vasquez. Jon Garland was traded for Cabrera. Chicago’s AL team still needs one or two more big pieces to get up to the range of the division heavyweights.

4. Minnesota Twins (75-87) - The Twinkies made a huge move after much interal struggle, trading Johan Santana to the Mets for four underwhelming prospects. The best one of those, teenage pitcher Deolis Guerra, won’t be ready for the majors until 2010. Centerfielder (and possible track star) Carlos Gomez will get the start, but pitchers Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey will have to audition. The Twins did do something right, however, when they locked up young studs Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer long-term. The Twins will be depending on the left arm of young superstar Francisco Liriano to anchor their pitching staff, but that might be a problem considering the last time Liriano pitched was in 2006. The Twins will struggle in 2008, that’s for sure. But…

5. Kansas City Royals (69-93) - …they won’t be quite as bad as the floundering Royals, who haven’t won anything in what seems like ages. The pitching staff might be the best part about the team, headlined by the underrated and overpaid Gil Meche and young stud Brian Bannister. But their number 3 is a busted prospect (athough his ERA was better than Chien-Ming Wang’s in 2007). The lineup is even worse, with such superstars as Mark Grudzielanek and Ross Gload. Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen have shown promise, but the rest of the lineup is a crapshoot (see Jose Guillen). The bullpen is pretty bad as well, sporting Joakim Soria as the closer. Over the past couple of years, the front office has shown a willingness to spend a little, giving big contracts to Meche and Guillen, but the payroll is among the last in the league. The Royals will be, as well.

I see the Indians making the playoffs as the three seed, with the Tigers barely missing the playoffs to the much-improved Mariners. The Twins are entering rebuilding, while the White Sox refuse to. And, as has been previously mentioned, the Royals are still the Royals. The AL Central figures to be pretty dull in 2008, but there’s hope for excitement in the future as the Tigers mature and the Twins rebuild.

The 2007 race for the AL East title was, well, there really wasn’t one. The Yankees came on hard down the stretch, but the more talented Red Sox held on and won the division (and later the World Series). The Yankees took second, with Toronto third, the Orioles fourth, and the futile Devil Rays fifth.

The division will see some change going into 2008. Big names like Erik Bedard, Miguel Tejada and Delmon Young have left, and no one has really come in that’s all that significant (unless you count Scott Rolen). The Red Sox held serve by resigning Mike Lowell, the Yankees failed to acquire a big-name pitcher (maybe because they didn’t want to), Tampa Bay dropped the “Devil” from its name, and the Orioles started a massive rebuilding project. Here’ s where I see everyone finishing:

1. Boston Red Sox (96-66) - The Red Sox did a nice job keeping all of their core players like Lowell, and did the right thing by avoiding Johan Santana and sacrificing a pretty good farm. The lineup is still stacked, and could get better as Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis continue to develop. Manny Ramirez can still mash, and David Ortiz expects a bounce back. The pitching is slightly weaker without Curt Schilling, but Boston believes Clay Buchholz is ready to pitch in the major leagues. After all, he’s already got a no-hitter on his transcript. Jon Lester looks to be the real deal, and while you can’t expect Josh Beckett to do what he did in 2007, he should put up good enough numbers to get by as a number 1 or 2 starter. Look for the same record from 2007 in 2008 for the defending champions.

2. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75) - A lot of people might say, “Now hold on, where’s the Yankees?” But the Jays have been riddled with injuries more than any other team in baseball over the last two years. The starting rotation, when healthy, is the best and deepest in the division. Roy Halladay is a stud, A.J. Burnett is filthy in the half-season he pitches, and Dustin McGowan has very good stuff for a number 3. The wild card on this staff is Shawn Marcum. A lot of people say that he doesn’t throw hard enough, but his breaking stuff is nasty, and his fastball is good enough to set the offspeed pitches up nicely. There’s even depth to this rotation, as Jesse Litsch,  Gustavo Chacin, and Casey Janssen all fight for a rotation spot. The lineup should see a bounce back with Scott Rolen, and the Blue Jays should run deep into September.

3. New York Yankees (85-77) - Everybody who’s not a Yankee fan knows it: this team has no pitching. Take Chien-Ming Wang for example. His ERA against the AL East was 5.17. And he’s their ace. No wonder he lost arbitration. Andy Pettitte can’t keep his head straight, and the rest of the rotation is rookies. Phil Hughes looked good when he wasn’t hurt, but how do we know he’ll stay healthy? Hamstring injuries are extremely hard to come back from. Ian Kennedy statistically has the highest risk of injury out of any pitcher in the majors because of his innings increase last year. And Joba Chamberlain is starting in the bullpen, mainly out of necessity. Now don’t get me wrong, the lineup can still rake, and Cashman did a nice job keeping A-Rod and Co. in New York. But the severe lack of a frontline starter (like Johan Santana) will hurt the Yankees too much for them to contend.

4. Tampa Bay Rays (74-8 - The Rays have always been bad. They’ve never made the playoffs. They’ve never even had a winning season! I expect those trends to continue. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The rotation has an excellent topping in Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza, and there’s more top-notch prospects coming (like David Price). The lineup has some punch in Carl Crawford, one of the most underappreciated players in the league, and Carlos Pena, who broke out to the tune of 46 home runs in 2007. Young prospect Evan Longoria has been compared to David Wright, and B.J. Upton is a very potent base-stealer. However, Tampa Bay will never truly get a chance to shine until the heavyweights like Boston and (for now) the Yankees drop down. There’s no sign of that happening in the near future.

5. Baltimore Orioles (67-95) - Baltimore GM Andy MacPhail decided to go on an all-out purge of his roster, and in the process picked up one of the best farm systems in the majors. However, while the Orioles may win a minor league championship this year, their a lock for dead last in the AL East. They traded slugging shortstop Miguel Tejada and strikeout machine Erik Bedard for prospects, the best of which is Adam Jones, a flashy, five-tool center fielder. George Sherrill could end up closing for this squad, which has lost Chris Ray and Danys Baez to injury. Sherrill is a nasty lefty, but he may be the only one on the team. Adam Loewen nor Hayden Penn are considered top prospects anymore. There is hope for the rotation. Jeremy Guthrie looks like a future ace, and Troy Patton and Radhames Liz aren’t far behind. Look for the O’s to improve in 2010, at the earliest.

All in all, the Red Sox appear to be the only team in this division that will make the playoffs. But every team except the Yankees appears to be on the rise in terms of talent (although Baltimore’s will take a couple years to develop).

Free agent LHP Odalis Perez has offers from both the Washington Nationals and the Boston Red Sox to come pitch for their team in 2008. Perez went 8-11 with a 5.57 ERA in 26 starts for Kansas City in 2007. His ERA over a nine-season career is 4.47. It is not known if Perez is being offered a major-league contract from either team.

Wow, the desperation for pitching depth is incredible. Perez throws a horrible season, and two teams are vying for his services. The Nationals would probably give him a spot in their rotation that currently includes such luminaries as John Lannan and Matt Chico. The Red Sox would use him to give youngster Clay Buchholz competition in camp. I don’t know why teams are stooping this low. There may be hope for Kyle Lohse’s ridiculous demands yet.

UPDATE: The Nationals have signed Perez to a minor league contract that will pay him $850,000 if he makes the big-league squad.

New York Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte reported to Yankees spring training at Tampa, Florida today and faced the media for about an hour before heading to the mound to get reacquainted with the pitching coaches. Pettitte offered an apology to Yankees fans, to his teammates, and to baseball for his multiple uses of steroids and HGH. Afterwards, Pettitte fielded questions from the media. When asked about what he would say to Roger Clemens right now, Pettitte sidestepped the question and explained, “I love [Roger Clemens] like a brother, and he’s in a horrible situation. And, you know, [Brian McNamee] is my good friend too, and in the situation he was in, he told the truth about me.”

Pettitte is a scar on the face of baseball, to say the least. He goes out and does steroids, admits he did them when someone else turns him in, but doesn’t tell the full story. He said in his deposition that he also took them in 2004. It’s really sad that a pretty talented pitcher like Pettitte has to go and put a permanent asterisk on his numbers because he took steroids. What a waste.

That said, at least he told the truth. He’s still friends with Brian McNamee. The trainer did the right thing in turning him in. I don’t really know what to think about Clemens, but if Pettitte and McNamee were this close, I bet Clemens was close as well.

Introducing the first series that Baseball Station will publish: Picking the Standings. Over the course of the next two weeks, I’ll be taking an in-depth look at each division, starting with the AL East, and pick the order that each team will finish, including their records. Each team will get a close analysis of their lineup, rotation, bullpen, bench, and 40-man depth.

Look for the AL East preview tomorrow night. Feel free to comment!

This is the first-ever post for my new dream blog, Baseball Station. I will provide objective analysis and up-to-date news from all around baseball. Make a comment if you would like to respond to a post.