Picking the Standings: AL East

The 2007 race for the AL East title was, well, there really wasn’t one. The Yankees came on hard down the stretch, but the more talented Red Sox held on and won the division (and later the World Series). The Yankees took second, with Toronto third, the Orioles fourth, and the futile Devil Rays fifth.

The division will see some change going into 2008. Big names like Erik Bedard, Miguel Tejada and Delmon Young have left, and no one has really come in that’s all that significant (unless you count Scott Rolen). The Red Sox held serve by resigning Mike Lowell, the Yankees failed to acquire a big-name pitcher (maybe because they didn’t want to), Tampa Bay dropped the “Devil” from its name, and the Orioles started a massive rebuilding project. Here’ s where I see everyone finishing:

1. Boston Red Sox (96-66) - The Red Sox did a nice job keeping all of their core players like Lowell, and did the right thing by avoiding Johan Santana and sacrificing a pretty good farm. The lineup is still stacked, and could get better as Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis continue to develop. Manny Ramirez can still mash, and David Ortiz expects a bounce back. The pitching is slightly weaker without Curt Schilling, but Boston believes Clay Buchholz is ready to pitch in the major leagues. After all, he’s already got a no-hitter on his transcript. Jon Lester looks to be the real deal, and while you can’t expect Josh Beckett to do what he did in 2007, he should put up good enough numbers to get by as a number 1 or 2 starter. Look for the same record from 2007 in 2008 for the defending champions.

2. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75) - A lot of people might say, “Now hold on, where’s the Yankees?” But the Jays have been riddled with injuries more than any other team in baseball over the last two years. The starting rotation, when healthy, is the best and deepest in the division. Roy Halladay is a stud, A.J. Burnett is filthy in the half-season he pitches, and Dustin McGowan has very good stuff for a number 3. The wild card on this staff is Shawn Marcum. A lot of people say that he doesn’t throw hard enough, but his breaking stuff is nasty, and his fastball is good enough to set the offspeed pitches up nicely. There’s even depth to this rotation, as Jesse Litsch,  Gustavo Chacin, and Casey Janssen all fight for a rotation spot. The lineup should see a bounce back with Scott Rolen, and the Blue Jays should run deep into September.

3. New York Yankees (85-77) - Everybody who’s not a Yankee fan knows it: this team has no pitching. Take Chien-Ming Wang for example. His ERA against the AL East was 5.17. And he’s their ace. No wonder he lost arbitration. Andy Pettitte can’t keep his head straight, and the rest of the rotation is rookies. Phil Hughes looked good when he wasn’t hurt, but how do we know he’ll stay healthy? Hamstring injuries are extremely hard to come back from. Ian Kennedy statistically has the highest risk of injury out of any pitcher in the majors because of his innings increase last year. And Joba Chamberlain is starting in the bullpen, mainly out of necessity. Now don’t get me wrong, the lineup can still rake, and Cashman did a nice job keeping A-Rod and Co. in New York. But the severe lack of a frontline starter (like Johan Santana) will hurt the Yankees too much for them to contend.

4. Tampa Bay Rays (74-88) - The Rays have always been bad. They’ve never made the playoffs. They’ve never even had a winning season! I expect those trends to continue. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The rotation has an excellent topping in Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza, and there’s more top-notch prospects coming (like David Price). The lineup has some punch in Carl Crawford, one of the most underappreciated players in the league, and Carlos Pena, who broke out to the tune of 46 home runs in 2007. Young prospect Evan Longoria has been compared to David Wright, and B.J. Upton is a very potent base-stealer. However, Tampa Bay will never truly get a chance to shine until the heavyweights like Boston and (for now) the Yankees drop down. There’s no sign of that happening in the near future.

5. Baltimore Orioles (67-95) - Baltimore GM Andy MacPhail decided to go on an all-out purge of his roster, and in the process picked up one of the best farm systems in the majors. However, while the Orioles may win a minor league championship this year, their a lock for dead last in the AL East. They traded slugging shortstop Miguel Tejada and strikeout machine Erik Bedard for prospects, the best of which is Adam Jones, a flashy, five-tool center fielder. George Sherrill could end up closing for this squad, which has lost Chris Ray and Danys Baez to injury. Sherrill is a nasty lefty, but he may be the only one on the team. Adam Loewen nor Hayden Penn are considered top prospects anymore. There is hope for the rotation. Jeremy Guthrie looks like a future ace, and Troy Patton and Radhames Liz aren’t far behind. Look for the O’s to improve in 2010, at the earliest.

All in all, the Red Sox appear to be the only team in this division that will make the playoffs. But every team except the Yankees appears to be on the rise in terms of talent (although Baltimore’s will take a couple years to develop).

Nationals, Perez Agree to Minor League Deal

Free agent LHP Odalis Perez has offers from both the Washington Nationals and the Boston Red Sox to come pitch for their team in 2008. Perez went 8-11 with a 5.57 ERA in 26 starts for Kansas City in 2007. His ERA over a nine-season career is 4.47. It is not known if Perez is being offered a major-league contract from either team.

Wow, the desperation for pitching depth is incredible. Perez throws a horrible season, and two teams are vying for his services. The Nationals would probably give him a spot in their rotation that currently includes such luminaries as John Lannan and Matt Chico. The Red Sox would use him to give youngster Clay Buchholz competition in camp. I don’t know why teams are stooping this low. There may be hope for Kyle Lohse’s ridiculous demands yet.

UPDATE: The Nationals have signed Perez to a minor league contract that will pay him $850,000 if he makes the big-league squad.